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  • ISIL on the offensive

    The Iraqi army didn't do too well in Mosul. So what happens next? Will Iraq be split into separate Sunni and Shiite states? Or will ISIL take Baghdad too? Some time ago, I speculated that sectarian tensions in Iraq would ultimately revive and get out of control, and Iran might intervene.

  • #2
    That would be risky, for Iran. America will probably increase it forces there, to combat ISIL.

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    • #3
      The borders of the present Middle East are artificial, and was designed that way to encourage the present situation.

      Unfortunately, our bretheren are stupid enough to play into this and continue with the murder and mayhem for the benefit of every other country that wishes to exploit them.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Gonjeeshk View Post
        That would be risky, for Iran. America will probably increase it forces there, to combat ISIL.
        I think Iran might intervene to the point of shoreing up Maliki in the shiite areas that can be held. The outcome might be an ISIL state and a truncated shiite Iraq essentially controlled by Iran. I don't think Obama would do much.

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        • #5
          So what do you think of the latest news-Iraqi pullback from Tikrit?

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Behrooz Boonabi



            I don't know about the implications yet. I am not sure if anybody does. But I heard the Iraqi army is moving in on four fronts today. It sounds like the method that has been working in Syria.

            Haven't heard anything new on that front.

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            • #7
              Iraq is a failed state, it should be split up. Since it's creation it has not done anything good for anyone who lives there. Iraq is history and no-one, not America, not Iran, can put it back together again. If Sunnis want ISIS cutting their heads off, than that's fine by me. Meanwhile we should focus on bringing Southern Iraq into unified Shi'a state with Iran.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Kermanshahi View Post
                Meanwhile we should focus on bringing Southern Iraq into unified Shi'a state with Iran.
                That would be tempting for Iran as it would greatly strengthen and enrich it--Iran would inherit most of Iraq's oil wealth. And it may be the most likely outcome. Still, I'm not sure if IS can be prevented from ultimately taking all of Iraq. The performance of Maliki's troops hasn't been very encouraging.... Recall in the past the sunnis ruled Iraq despite being a minority; maybe they can still pull it off. I suspect the present (relative) lull is due to IS consolidating its gains and absorbing captured weapons before making its next major move.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by starman View Post

                  That would be tempting for Iran as it would greatly strengthen and enrich it--Iran would inherit most of Iraq's oil wealth. And it may be the most likely outcome. Still, I'm not sure if IS can be prevented from ultimately taking all of Iraq. The performance of Maliki's troops hasn't been very encouraging....
                  Maybe the way to combat that group is for Iraq to have its own, large resistance group? Something like Hezbollah

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Gonjeeshk View Post

                    Maybe the way to combat that group is for Iraq to have its own, large resistance group? Something like Hezbollah
                    It has Shiite militias but I don't know if they've been combat tested. Fighting IS is the army's responsibility and if it can't do it....I heard even the peshmergas chickened out in a recent action.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by starman View Post

                      That would be tempting for Iran as it would greatly strengthen and enrich it--Iran would inherit most of Iraq's oil wealth. And it may be the most likely outcome. Still, I'm not sure if IS can be prevented from ultimately taking all of Iraq. The performance of Maliki's troops hasn't been very encouraging.... Recall in the past the sunnis ruled Iraq despite being a minority; maybe they can still pull it off. I suspect the present (relative) lull is due to IS consolidating its gains and absorbing captured weapons before making its next major move.
                      Sunnis controlled all of Iraq because the British drew their colonial Iraqi army purely from the Sunni community so after independence the Sunnis ran the army and used the army to retain control. They had all the weapons, and since all official Presidents and Prime Ministers Iraq ever had prior to 2004 were Sunni, they were the official representives of Iraq in the international community and the only ones legally allowed to buy weapons. Iran smuggled some guns and mortars to Shi'as, but the army which was Sunni controlled could buy tanks, jets, missiles, everything from Russia, France and USA. Now US has destroyed all Saddam's heavy weapons the playing field has been leveled permanently. Shi'as can openly buy weapons from US, from Russia and other countries whereas ISIS has to smuggle everything or capture weapons and most of Saddam's strength derived from it's air force. There are 4.5 million Sunni Arabs in Iraq and 20 million Shi'as, they can't bring enough troops to the table to win this.

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                      • #12
                        Peshmerga Hit IS in Mosul

                        ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Kurdish Peshmerga forces equipped with new heavy weapons have opened a new front in their fight against the Islamic State (IS/ISIS), attacking the group in its stronghold of Mosul, a military official said.

                        The past 12 hours have seen some of the fiercest fighting between the Peshmerga and IS militants at Gogjalil, outside Mosul.

                        A Peshmerga official said his forces have killed four IS militants and captured three. On Tuesday night, eight IS militants were killed and 11 wounded. Two Peshmerga soldiers were also injured.

                        Ranja Jamal, reporting for Rudaw from the frontline, said that the Peshmerga had repelled an attack Wednesday morning, destroying several IS vehicles.

                        “The vehicles caught fire and the attack didn’t succeed,” said Jamal, who spoke to Rudaw Radio live from the scene.

                        Also Wednesday morning, a truck bomb targeted a Peshmerga checkpoint at the village of Aliya Rash near Mosul, killing a major and wounding 13 Kurdish soldiers.

                        Peshmerga sources said they had tried to stop the truck by firing on it before it reached the checkpoint.

                        According to our reporter, heavy Peshmerga bombardment destroyed an IS arsenal in Gogjalil on Tuesday.

                        A large force of IS fighters in 40 vehicles is said to have taken position at the Gogjalil cemetery, from where they are locked in battle with the Peshmerga.

                        The Kurds heavily bombed the center of Mosul on Tuesday, said the Rudawreporter, which was confirmed by IS postings on the Internet.

                        The Kurdish forces, who share more than 1,000 kilometers of border with the self-declared Islamic State, are closest to the group’s position at Mosul, which the militants have named as their capital.

                        Before the start of the offensive over the weekend, both sides sat on two ends of a bridge only 500 meters apart.

                        http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/060820141

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                        • #13
                          I just saw a report that IS captured Iraq's largest dam, north of Mosul, and the peshmerga retreated.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by starman View Post
                            I just saw a report that IS captured Iraq's largest dam, north of Mosul, and the peshmerga retreated.

                            that was a false report based on isis claim, the attack on the dam was repelled

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                            • #15
                              Kurdish Peshmerga forces kill ISIS minister of war Tarkhan Batirhvili



                              Hewlêr, Kurdistan region 'Iraq',— Kurdish security sources revealed killing one of the most prominent leaders of the al-Qaeda linked Islamic State of Iraq and Syria ISIS during battles to regain control of the dam of Mosul.

                              The source said that "A force of the Peshmerga killed the Minister of war, Tarkhan Batirhvili known as Abu Omar al-Shishani during battles in Dam of Mosul.

                              He added that the Kurdish forces completely controlled the dam site.

                              Omar al-Shishani ( Chechen), is one of hundreds of Chechens who are considered one of the most extremist fighters in Syria, he appeared as the leading commander of ISIS organization which adopts the approach of Al-Qaeda, according to what was reported by Graphic News.

                              A graph for Graphic News, shows that Abu Omar al-Shishani, whose real name is Tarkhan Batirhvili was born in 1968, in the Pankisi Valley in Georgia.

                              Between 2006 and 2010 he served in the Georgian army, and participated in fighting against thewww.Ekurd.net Russian invasion of Georgia, he had been promoted to the rank of sergeant in 2008.

                              In 2010, he was dismissed from the service in the army, after spending time in the hospital, suffering from tuberculosis. In the same year, he was arrested by Georgian police on charges of possessing weapons illegally.

                              In early 2012, he had been released because of his deteriorating health, after serving 16 months of a three-year sentence in prison.


                              In the same year, he joined the struggle to topple President Bashar al-Assad. And led a group called "Army of immigrants and supporters", which is composed largely of Chechen fighters.

                              In (November 2013), he declared loyalty to the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

                              In 2014, he led an attack of ISIS against other rebel competing groups, which is fighting the regime in eastern province of Deir al-Zour in Syria, to become a main leader for the forces of the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria ", after the death of leader of the extremist organization, Abu Abdulrahman Al-Biloai last June

                              http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles.../state8276.htm

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